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pubblicato: giovedì, 17 gennaio, 2013

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Italian Electoral Polls Average and Electoral result prediction at Jan, 16

La media dei sondaggi al 16/01/13

As in every pre-election period, a huge number of electoral polls have been published (and continue to be) in the past few weeks both at national and regional level (for the outcome of the Senate elections). The right-wing coalition lead by Silvio Berlusconi is experiencing some positive results, after abysmal numbers in the past 6 months. The increased frequency Berlusconi has been on TV seems to be paying off and the PDL (Popolo delle Libertà), his party, is now estimated to be at a 19% vote share, up from 18,2% last week. The Democratic Party (PD) is polling slightly lower than it’s historical-high, reached during the debates and december primaries, but is still estimated at a 33% vote share, a very good result for Mr Bersani’s party
[ad]The same can be said of the center-left coalition, of which the PD is part, which is pretty much stable in the last polls. Scelta Civica, the new political party created by prime minister Mario Monti, is ascending and is now estimated at 15%. The contrary seems to be happening for the “Movimento 5 Stelle”, lead by comedian Beppe Grillo which, after reaching an all-time high, is now falling. Its difficulties, we believe, derive from Mr Berlusconi’s very active electoral campaign (some former center-right electors who were disilluded and were considering voting for Mr Grillo, are now going back to where they belong), but also from Mr Ingroia’s (a former public prosecutor), left-wing coalition Rivoluzione Civile (“Civil Revolution”) which is now close to a 4% vote share, a good result but still very far from the potential it had just a few weeks ago. Talking about the Senate, we see Italia Bene Comune (Italy, Public Value), the center-left coalition, with an advantage. Yet, one must consider that both Lombardia and Veneto, two very big regions, are real toss-ups and may go either way and do not understimate the possibly swingy status of Campania which, while we estimate in IBC’s hands, may change status in the following weeks.


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