Prima di tutto alcuni numeri per capire l’entità delle elezioni
About 5.2 million people were eligible to vote, choosing from 33 parties, with polls closing at 10 p.m. (3 p.m. ET). According to the Central Election Committee, 62.5 percent of eligible voters cast ballots — about 2 percentage points higher than the country’s last elections, in 2006.
Quindi, 33 partiti, 62.5% di affluenza, il 2% in più rispetto alle passate elezioni 2006, che videro l’affermazione di Olmert. Le operazioni di voto si sono svolte dalle 7:00 locali (le 6:00 in Italia) alle 22:00 (ora locale) in 9.263 seggi. Il 18 di Febbraio verranno annunciati i risultati ufficiali. Il 2 Marzo la nuova Knesset avvierà ufficialmente i lavori.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Elections/2009/page.aspx/Electoral
Come viene formato il governo a seguito dell’elezione del Primo Ministro?
Per formare un governo ci vogliono 61 su 120 seggi totali della Knesset. E’ improbabile che nè Kadima nè Likud possano farcela da soli. Il Primo Ministro ha 6 settimane per formare il suddetto governo
Questi sono i primi risultati degli exit polls delle elezioni presidenziali in Israele 2009
Su Repubblica si legge
Gli exit poll di Ynet confermano Livni sarebbe in testa, con il 28 seggi contro i 26 del Likud, e registrano un crollo dei laburisti che sarebbero il quarto partito con 14 seggi. Secondo Canale 10, Kadima ottiene invece 30 seggi – ben oltre i più rosei sondaggi – mentre il Likud, pur in forte recupero rispetto al precedente voto del 2006, si ferma a 28, nel sostanziale rispetto delle previsioni. Stando agli exit poll commissionati dal sito Ynet le destre laiche e confessionali sommate in un unico blocco disporrebbero in totale di 65 seggi su 120 alla Knesset.
Somma che include forze piuttosto disomogenee e non facili da assemblare, oltre che destinate a formare un governo inaccettabile a ogni interlocutore arabo, ma problematico anche per la comunità internazionale e la nuova amministrazione Usa di Barack Obama. Tra le formazioni minori, 9-10 seggi andrebbero al partito religioso dello Shas, 4 alla sinistra pacifista del Meretz e per i due partiti arabo-israeliani, Hadash e Ràam Tàal.
Early exit polls showed a surprise narrow lead for the centrist Kadima party as voting ended in Israel’s elections Tuesday, Israeli television networks reported. Kadima, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, appeared to have an edge over the conservative Likud bloc led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman and Israeli political analysts warned that exit polls had been wrong in past elections. Pre-election opinion polls had suggested that right-wing parties may benefit from Israel’s recent military campaign in Gaza.
(per continuare la lettura cliccare su “2”)
Haaretz
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Exit Polls Elezioni Israele 2009
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063105.html
Despite the poll results, it is not certain that Livni will be able to muster the 61-seat coalition needed to form a government. The elections were called when she failed to achieve this goal following the resignation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert late last year. If the exit polls are correct, the right-wing bloc, led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, will comprise 63-64 seats, while the center-left bloc, headed by Livni, will take 56-57 seats. This means that a win in the polls does not necessarily mean that the next government will have a center-left bent. The Channel 1 poll gave Kadima 30 seats, Likud 28 seats, and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu is predicted to win 14 seats, according to the poll. According to the Channel 2 poll, Kadima will hold 29 seats, Likud will take 27 seats and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu will have 15 seats in the new Knesset. The Channel 10 poll indicated that Likud will take 28 seats, Kadima will hold 30 seats and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu will have 15 seats.
Qui invece abbiamo i dati di Jpost
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Exit Polls Israele 2009
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1233304741384&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
A Dialog poll broadcast on Channel 10 gave Kadima 30 mandates, Likud 28 seats, and Israel Beiteinu 15. A Midgam poll on Channel 1 found that Kadima had won 30, Likud 28, and Israel Beiteinu 14. The Dahaf Institute’s poll on Channel 2 predicted 29 mandates for Kadima, 27 for Likud, and 15 for Israel Beiteinu.
Interessante poi questo commento preso da BBC
Even if the exit polls are proved right, a strong showing by right-wing rivals will make it difficult for Ms Livni to form a coalition government. Israel’s president traditionally chooses the leader of the party that wins the most parliamentary seats to form a coalition government. But he can also choose any party leader who he believes has the best chance of doing so. President Shimon Peres is expected to hold talks with party leaders later this week, after the final results are in. Once he has asked a party leader to form a government, he or she has up to 42 days to do so. If the coalition attempt fails, Mr Peres can ask another leader to assume the task.
Mr Olmert will stay on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed. The election has been dominated by security issues following Israel’s offensive in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Although the Palestinian Authority has not expressed preference for any candidate, its senior negotiator, Saeb Erakat, expressed dismay that right-wing parties had performed so well. “It is obvious the Israelis have voted to paralyse the peace process,” he said. All three channels gave Labor 13 seats.
In pratica si afferma che anche qualora la Livni (Kadima) dovesse vincere, la coalizione di destra conservatrice (Kadima) e ultraortodossa (Yasrael Beitenu ed altri) e Shas potrebbe avere un peso specifico maggiore e perciò portare la Knesset ad essere costretta a vedere un governo di larghe intese (stile Germania nel periodo Merkel per intenderci). I Laburisti di Barak dovrebbero risultare la quarta forza del paese, ma quasi certamente fuori dai giochi di potere.
Una dichiarazione importante proviene da Lieberman
Israel Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman refused to endorse either Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni or Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night, saying rather his party would be open to hearing from all parties involved in the formation of the next coalition, but his party would never give up its core principles.
Ricordiamo poi che se la Livni diventasse PM, sarebbe la seconda donna, dopo Golda Meir, dal 1969 al 1974.