Why Obama will win Virginia and Colorado

Pubblicato il 1 Novembre 2008 alle 09:16 Autore: Gianluca Borrelli
L'America cambia: un poster di Obama in Colorado

Colorado was won by Clinton in 1992, but this can be attributed to the votes that Ross Perot stripped from George H. Bush. However, 1964, Colorado was won by Democrats in Lindon Johnson’s landslide victory after Kennedy’s murder.

In Virginia’s case, only in 1964 was it a Democrat victory state. Preceding these illustrations, voting on the Democrat side for Henry Truman in 1948! Historically, both states represented Republican territory as they were of the richest. In light of the current trends with richest people now preferring Democrats, they are going more and more to the left.

This poses the question…’why do rich people vote Democrat’? Perphaps it can be attributed to the fact that Clinton benefited the economy and created new wealth while Bush did poorly on this front. On the other hand, Bush did cut taxes for the wealthy bracket, while in contrast Obama promises to raise them for earnings of more than 250.000$ annual income. Interestingly, the only 2 states of the 12 richest won by Bush in 2004 were?

I just gave you the answer.

It’s possible that the 12 richest states all will be won by Democrats, which would not be very surprising as categories of people voted for Obama in primary elections were:

1) Black people;

2) Young people;

3) Those with more than 50.000$ of yearly income.

The combination of these 3 elements makes Obama’s victory much more probable. Applying the demographic knowledge, technically, a young state, with a high percentage of black people and a high income average is the ideal region for Obama’s campaign. This embodies Virginia! We have not seen a definitive Democrat victory here to date as they have voted for Republicans for last 44 years. This is a undoubtedly huge block. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that Obama can overcome this.

Furthermore, if we consider the Hispanic population who favored Hillary Clinton in primaries, they now stand for Obama with huge percentages. It seems that the endorsement to “Tancredo” given by McCain on immigration policies alienated the old John from the Hispanic vote. This, in effect, replaces Black with Hispanic votes…the core of which is Colorado.

It is evident that these 2 states are enough to radically alter the electoral balance that in 2000 and 2004 saw the same swing states as electoral battleground i.e. Florida (recount in 2000), Ohio (2004 vote polemic), Iowa, New Mexico etc. This time, however, it appears that things are going to be different and as we are all well aware, in America things flow quickly and taboos are made to be pulled down. Undoubtedly, exciting times lie ahead…

L'autore: Gianluca Borrelli

Salernitano, ingegnere delle telecomunicazioni, da sempre appassionato di politica. Ha vissuto e lavorato per anni all'estero tra Irlanda e Inghilterra. Fondatore ed editore del «Termometro Politico».
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